Afghanistan — already struggling to feed its population — is facing a deepening humanitarian emergency as regional instability drives new waves of displacement.
By Nathan Morley
In 2025 alone, more than 1 million Afghans returned from Iran, overwhelming Afghanistan’s fragile aid system and triggering a fresh cycle of internal movement. The U.N. refugee agency has warned that forced or pressured returns could destabilize the wider region.
Now, a surge in U.S. and Israeli strikes inside Iran is raising fears of a broader refugee crisis.
As power grids fail, cities evacuate and security deteriorates, millions of people in Iran — including refugees displaced by earlier conflicts — are confronting a stark choice: stay or flee. Iran is not just another state caught in regional turmoil. It is one of the world’s largest refugee‑hosting countries, sheltering an estimated 3.8 million Afghans. That includes roughly 750,000 registered refugees and more than 2.6 million undocumented Afghans who escaped decades of war.
For many Afghan refugees in Iran, the current crisis compounds years of uncertainty. Large numbers have lived in the country for decades without permanent legal status. Economic pressure and political tensions have led to tighter migration rules and rising deportations.
A parallel crisis is unfolding in Pakistan, home to around 3 million Afghan refugees. Over the past year, Islamabad has accelerated deportations of undocumented Afghans and those with expired temporary permits, saying it can no longer cope. Kabul, already overwhelmed, is struggling to absorb the returnees — more than two‑thirds of whom have never lived in Afghanistan.
With humanitarian budgets stretched thin by donor cuts and U.S. aid freezes, many returnees face limited options for survival. Aid officials warn that some may attempt the dangerous journey toward Europe.
